Scouting Report: James Ennis

In his second and final year of playing Division One college basketball, James Ennis showed a lot of improvement and has placed himself in a fairly favorable spot to get drafted. Ennis has always possessed outstanding athleticism and starred in the high jump in junior college in addition to playing ball. After transferring to Long Beach State from Ventura College in his junior year, Ennis seemed to gain even more confidence this season and became a more aggressive player.

Ennis's game is based around his outstanding athleticism and he does a great job of using it in game situations. He really gets after it on the defensive end and averaged 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes this season (pace adjusted). Ennis plays with a lot of energy and is one of those guys who can come out of nowhere to block shots. He chases guys down in transition for blocks and is aggressive when it comes to playing help defense. He is very intimidating when he closes in on you and he was very aggressive when it came to double teaming opponents. He forced a lot of bad passes just by bringing defensive pressure and also came up with a lot of steals. He plays the passing lanes very well, has cat-like reflexes, and very good length for wing defender.

Ennis is a lanky, wiry strong guy and pulled down 7.5 boards per 40 minutes (pace adjusted) which was up from 5.6 his first season with the team. He has good hands and was able to go over defenders backs and tip the ball to himself. His aggression and effort on defense carries over to the boards.

His team was also undersized and needed him to provide a paint presence. They looked to get up and down the court as fast as any team in the nation. Ennis was able to start breaks right out of rebounds, but showed shaky ball handling skills.

At this point, he can create plays off the dribble but only because of his elite athleticism. His athleticism at the mid-major level allowed him to mask his shortcomings as a ball handler, as he is most definitely poor in that area. He didn't let that stop him from attacking the basket though, although he was often forcing up circus shots. He was unable to drive into the lane in a controlled matter and most of the shots he put up ended up being really awkward. The only way he got them off was because of his elevation.

Because of his lack of ball handling or control, Ennis has no mid-range game of which to speak of. His team as a whole performed poorly in the halfcourt and they lacked structure. Ennis' shots off the dribble were pretty much freestyled attempts without much rhyme or reason. One thing he did do well was going inside without the ball and capitalizing on offensive rebound opportunities. He is able to control the ball well on tip-in plays.

Ennis also scored baskets by cutting towards the rim once a teammate had the ball in the post. There wasn't much structure in these plays or cuts, but they were effective. In the pros, Ennis may benefit from a system that will focus more on getting him open off of these plays. He's a great finisher at the rim due to his athleticism, strength, and also his creativity. His creativity hurts him on perimeter drives because he is completely out of control once he reaches the rim, but it works to his advantage off cuts without the ball.

As a shooter, Ennis is able to hit a good percentage of his long range shots when he has the time to get them off. He shot a respectable 35% from behind the arc each of his two season at Long Beach State. The bigger problem for Ennis shooting the ball is his release. He isn't a guy you have to worry much about from behind the arc because it takes him too long to get off the shot. In the NBA, defenders close out quickly and he will need to really work on speeding up his shot.

Although it doesn't project to be a big part of his game at the next level, Ennis did show some potential creating his own jumper off of one or two dribbles. His ball handling is too shaky for anything more, but he has a really quick stepback crossover move. With more repetition  he could develop more confidence to use it more often. But he has to use it smart - a lot of his stepback moves resulted in long 2-pt attempts just inside the 3-pt arc.

Ennis is also a good teammate who looks to get others involved. He can make some impressive passes, but turns the ball over too often because he makes things too difficult. He had a negative assist to turnover ratio this year, which again speaks to how poor of a ball handler he is.

Overall, Ennis will have to make a name for himself on the defensive end but he has all the tools to do just that. He showed on a consistent basis that he can be an impact defender in college and with his athleticism, he will still be one of the better athletes in the NBA. He will need to improve his focus and really key in on his man to man defense instead of being a guy who is all over the court. Teams will certainly likely his defense as well as his rebounding ability.

In the end though, he will need to be able to prove he can space the court as well as play smarter. He hasn't played in a structured offense up to this point so there will be a learning curve. He will also have to adjust to playing without the ball in his hands and against better competition. He did benefit from playing the likes of North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA, Syracuse, USC, and Baylor in one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules this year.

In terms of his ranking among other small forwards, I see him behind other second rounders like Solomon Hill and Adonis Thomas due to his lack of potential and polish. But compared to Carrick Felix - a guy who is projected to be the same kind of defensive player - I like Ennis better because he's an even better athlete. Ennis hasn't locked up a draft spot in the second round, but he has improved his stock since college ended with strong showings at both Portsmouth and the combine in Chicago. He could end up being a guy like James White who had to spend years in the D-League before getting a legit shot in the NBA.

2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Takeaways from the NBA Combine

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.



Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

Scouting Report: Solomon Hill

Solomon Hill is a known commodity in the college basketball community at this point and has developed a reputation as a hardworker throughout his career. Even back in high school, Hill started off as an undersized mid-major forward who was working on becoming more perimeter oriented. He eventually became a top 100 recruit and landed at Arizona, where his versatility made him into one of the best players in the Pac-12.

Solomon Hill started off as the "other forward" on Arizona, playing alongside fellow class of 2009 prospect, Derrick Williams. Williams, of course, left after his sophomore year and ended up being taken as the number two overall pick in the draft.

At the time, they were fairly interchangeable on both sides of the ball between both forward spots. Williams took over the team, became a star, and overshadowed Solomon Hill in the process. Since then, Williams hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations in the NBA and has proven to be more of a fit at power forward than on the perimeter.

Hill has benefitted from staying in college and noticeably improving every year. Like Williams, Solomon Hill has great intangibles and a strong work ethic. He has transformed himself into a guy who played within 15 feet of the basket his first couple of years, to becoming strictly a perimeter player this season. He has improved both his volume and percentages each year from behind the arc as well as his assisting and A/TO ratio.

At this point in his development, Hill is definitely closer to a legit small forward prospect than a tweener. His ball handling has become a strength, he shoots the ball with his feet set very well, and he has always had good passing skills and feel for the game.

As an athlete, I have some reservations about Hill's ability to play the same game in the NBA that he currently plays in college. He doesn't possess good quickness and isn't explosive off the bounce. In college, he makes up for that with a vast array of moves. He utilizes hesitations, ball fakes, and can use a spin move in the lane while maintaining perfect balance. Hill also uses a jumpstop a lot, something you don't see a lot of players using nowadays. Hill is solid at changing directions on drives as well, but his moves aren't quick.

With these moves, Hill is able to manuever himself anywhere on the court while being under complete control. Thanks to his strength, he doesn't have to be quick to the rim. He can also put his head down and bully his way into the lane at times. He doesn't get great separation all the time, but has more than enough strength to muscle up shots in the lane. He also has an arsenal of post moves from his early career and hits the turnaround jumper with consistency. Everything Hill does with the ball is very smooth and under control, albeit a little mechanical.

In the NBA, it will get tougher to rely on those moves. Not only will it be harder for him to get by defenders and use strength, but it will be harder for him to finish in the paint. Hill doesn't have great height for a small forward and he will need to do a much better job at drawing contact. Hill only got to the line 3.5 times per game, despite driving into the lane a lot. A lot of it has to do with his ability to avoid avoid contact with pump fakes, but it also shows that he's not explosive going straight to the cup.

The good thing with Hill is, he's not a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He's also effective as a spot up shooter and moving without the basketball. He can cut to the rim and finish in traffic. He's also a fairly explosive jumper off of two feet, although he isn't elite. His explosiveness at the rim is better than his first step, lateral quickness, or ability to change directions. He's more creative and skilled than guys with similar profiles like Sam Young, Alonzo Gee, David Noel, Denham Brown, and Joey Graham.

Speaking of lateral quickness, that is another one of my concerns with him translating to the next level. Hill has been able to hang his hat on his solid defense in college, but how much of it will translate? His wingspan is only average for a small forward at 6-9.75 and he doesn't have the speed side to side to compensate for it.   Hill reminds me of Sam Young from a physical and athletic perspective, but Young has almost a 2 inch longer wingspan. I don't doubt that Hill will be a good defender, but will he be a good enough defender to overcome his average scoring output?

Overall, Hill does possess a lot of the qualities of a solid role player. With the success teams have found in drafting experienced SFs in the second round, you can be sure the Hill will hear his name called on draft night. Guys like Chandler Parsons and Jimmy Butler have shined in past weeks and should help his stock. However, Im just not convinced he is the same type of player either of those two are. He isnt as fluid or tall as Parsons (both are great passers, but Parsons passing ability has translated to the NBA because he can still see over defenses, Hill will have a tougher adjustment) or as great of a defender as Jimmy Butler. Hill needs something to hang his hat on at the next level and you can be sure he will continue to improve his game. He is a guy you can't count out and he deserves to have his name called on draft night.

Scouting Report: Carrick Felix

Carrick Felix has taken an interesting path to get to this point in his career. He was an under the radar prospect in high school, ended up playing JUCO ball alongside Pierre Jackson, and was once committed to play at Duke following that. Felix ultimately ended up at Arizona State (where he has played the last 3 years) and didn't emerge onto the draft radar until this season at the age of 22 (he will be 23 when the 2013-14 NBA season begins).

Anytime a player struggled to make a big impact until his senior season, there will be red flags to answer. For Felix, he has certainly matured over the years. The birth of his daughter this past July forced him to mature and gave him a new focus on the game of basketball. During this past year, Felix also earned his master's degree in Liberal Studies.

But it just wasn't a new found focus on the game that helped him. Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek opened up their offense into a more pro-oriented system this year when he added a couple of former NBA coaches to his staff. Part of the reason for the change of system was to take advantage of freshman point guard Jahii Carson's skillset, who also played a big part in the emergence of Carrick Felix.

Playing in a more open offense, the game looked like it came easy to Felix. You could tell that Felix had played next to a dynamic point guard before (Pierre Jackson) and his ability to work off of Carson was excellent.

Felix isn't much of a playmaker himself, instead he's a guy who you usually will only see taking a maximum of two dribbles. He doesn't have much of a mid-range game either. But what he does is fill his role very well and takes smart shots.

Most of his points come from cuts to the rim, beating guys in transition, offensive rebounds, and cuts spot up 3-pters. As NBA statsheads will tell you, scoring from those spots on the court is an efficient way to make a living. He doesn't over-complicate anything, Felix just makes the plays that are given to him.

His best asset is his motor and you can see him consistently beating the other nine guys down the court on both ends. He became a guy who could get chase down blocks in transition. He was also very versatile and whenever he was covering a power forward, he made it very hard for them to keep up with him running the floor.

In the halfcourt, Felix was able to get to the rims with straight line drives to either direction. He has a good first step and is an explosive finisher in the lane. When he can, he will finish with an emphatic dunk over the defense. The best thing about his drives are that he knows his limitations. He knows he doesn't have an in-between game or the ability to change directions and weave through opponents. Because of that, he makes very few mistakes. He takes to dribbles to the rim and if the lane is open, he will finish. If not, Felix is perfectly content on kicking the ball back out and does a solid job passing.

He will never be the most creative player or much of a scorer, but he will have a very easy transition to the NBA. What he did at Arizona State is the same thing he will do in the NBA. He won't need to tone down his game at all and teams will never have to question his energy level. They also don't have to worry about his maturity or work ethic.

In terms of shooting the ball, he has made significant strides every single year but still needs to get better. He shot 37.4% from three, up from his two previous rates of 30% and 20%. The adjustment to the NBA 3-pt line will be a concern as he is finally just getting himself accommodated to the college line. A guy like him will need to consistently make shots to be able to play in the NBA and he will likely need to spend time in the D-League until he gets used to the NBA line. He does do a nice job sliding to the short corner behind the arc and hitting those 3s. Felix certainly understands where the most efficient shots are on the court.

His free throwing shooting also isn't a good sign for his overall touch. As I said before, Felix hardly ever shoots a mid-range jumper or any floaters. And his free throw shooting percentage of 65% makes you believe he doesn't even shoot inside the arc during practices. His shooting didn't get better as the season went on either. He shot just 61% from the line in conference play.

Defensively, Felix can be a valuable asset. He is a bouncy athlete with a very high motor. In college, he was able to cover just about any position on the court. He came up with steals and blocks, displayed good hands, and attacked the glass hard for rebounds. Felix has worked on his body over the years too and has added a good amount of bulk. He doesn't have a great build to be a power wing, but he certainly has the mindset. With a nonstop motor, long arms, and a good defensive IQ Felix projects to be an above average defender at the next level.

Overall, Carrick Felix looks to be your prototypical mid to late second round pick. He needed the right system in college to flourish and it will be even more important that he finds a good situation in the NBA. Even with the right situation though, he will need to improve his shooting to even see the court. Still, Carrick Felix is a low maintenance guy who has the motor and maturity teams like at the end of their bench. He won't  have a problem transitioning to a role player in the NBA because he pretty much already is one. Look for him to go to smart team in the 50s. He could turn into a poor man's version of Jimmy Butler down the line.

The Case For Adonis Thomas

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.