Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Scouting Report: Andre Roberson

Height: 6'7''
Weight: 210lbs
Wingspan: 6'11'' (?)
Bday: 12/4/1991

Team: Colorado
Class of 2014

Andre Roberson arrived on campus as an unheralded prospect, a skinny 6'6'' power forward who had shown enough promise to eventually become a college small forward. Playing with Cory Higgins and Alec Burks his freshman year, Roberson didn't have a chance to shoot much but found a way to make a impact on the game with his defense and rebounding. His ability to make his impact felt without the ball put him on the radar and had scouts pegging him for a breakout sophomore campaign with Higgins and Burks headed to the NBA. Roberson's sophomore year showed even more promise although he didn't takeover offensively, and now heading into his junior year, Roberson is expected to make yet another leap. Something he is good at.

Roberson is a tremendous athlete on the court. Since he came into Boulder, his body has improved, and he is now being listed at 6'7'' with a long wingspan to help compensate his shortcomings. He has also put on a good amount of weight to the point where that shouldn't be a huge factor anymore. When watching Roberson, his determination and tenacity combined with the wiry strength he does possess, has been enough to keep him from getting pushed around. Roberson is so active that I am not even sure he stays in one spot long enough for someone to get a body on him.

His activeness around the basket is a lethal combination with his fluid athleticism. He has aggregated those tools to become one of the top rebounders in the country and reminded some scouts of Kawhi Leonard because of it.

In my opinion, Roberson's athleticism is more reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. Leonard was built strong while Warrick and Roberson are more bouncy and fluid. At this point in time, Leonard was a better prospect because of his ball skills. Leonard was a lot easier to project into a small forward role at the next level while Roberson is still very much a tweener on offense.

Roberson's current offense game mainly revolves around put backs, transition opportunities, and straight drives to the hoop. He has shown minimal signs of a post game and his progression as a player makes it appear that he is working towards becoming a small forward in the NBA. He has shown the ability to knock down open jumpers with his feet set, shooting 38% from the 3-pt line, but his shot is very mechanical and rarely forced. His statistics tell a better story of his shot than it actually is. His free throw percentage explains his struggle shooting. Still, he is able to spread the floor.

Roberson wasn't the focal point of the offense even with Burks and Higgins gone and spent equal amount of time on the perimeter as he did setting picks and occupying the paint. Roberson was unable to create his own shots, looking very unnatural shooting of the dribble, but did show good explosion to the basket driving all the way out to the three point line. He is a straight line driver (and very right hand dominant) but has enough body control to put himself in position for a high percentage shot once he gets to the rim. He absorbs contact well and is an all around terrific finisher. He combines the toughness of a big man with the craftiness of a wing once he is at the rim.

Roberson also runs the court very well, looking for every chance possible to get easy buckets. He plays well off the ball and creates a lot of easy dunks at the rim because of it. Every time a shot goes up, Roberson crashes the boards in case of a miss. He has shown a nice touch on tip backs or tipping the ball out to teammates.

While his offense can be a nice complimentary piece since he doesn't need the ball, his defense can be game changing. Roberson is best with freedom, where he can roam off the ball a provide help at the rim. His shotblocking ability is terrific and may be underrated due to the fact that he spends some time covering perimeter players. He is able to block shots with both hands and really makes an art of it. He blocks shots playing straight man defense, helping off the ball, directly at the rim, coming from behind, and is able to block jumpers at the apex of the shot. Because of his shot blocking ability and elite rebounding, I do like Roberson at the power forward.

Roberson has looked fine guarding on the perimeter, but his length is more effective than his lateral quickness. He can be a good wing defender, but I don't think you get the most value out of him by confining him to that one task. He would be best used on defense in a Josh Smith type role.

Roberson has a good amount of potential and the trajectory of his improvements to date should be enough to believe he will continue to get even better, but even without the potential, Roberson brings a lot to the table. He is an elite rebounder, a impact defender, and an above average finisher at the rim. I have some reservations about Roberson becoming a full time small forward, but there is no reason he has to be. He has unique abilities and the best way to utilize him will be in a specialize role. His energy will be perfect off the bench at the beginning of the career and if he grows into more, it is a bonus. If not, you have a borderline starter who plays a brand of basketball you can win with. Roberson has a long way to go offensively as a small forward and will never be a great ball handler, but don't let that distract you from what he can bring to the table. He is easily a first round pick at this point, even without improvement, and Id expect him to be drafted somewhere in the teens on draft night.

Monday, August 13, 2012

A Quick Look At Alec Brown

I have been seeing Alec Brown mentioned as a lottery pick on multiple sites so I wanted to give my thoughts on him real quick. I don't want to do a complete scouting report on him right now because I don't see him as a guy who will declare this season. Brown is way too scrawny at this point in time to be effective in any kind of role at the next level - in Europe or the NBA. Guys who are over 7 feet tall and weight around 215 pounds generally don't have a good track record. 215 poinds isn't a weight you say a guy is skinny and just needs to put on some weight. No, 215 for a 7 footer is a huge problem. If you look at the Draft Express database, it is basically a death sentence. I don't want to close the door on Brown as he does have a good skill set, but he has to put on weight. I am talking about finishing this season up above 230 pounds. And even then, that just provides hope. He still would have a ways to go strength wise before declaring after this season.

I am usually all for guys leaving early if they want to and heading to a pro team where they can make money and practice more often with better coaches and players. But for sticks like Brown, they are so far behind physically that they won't even be able to play down low to work on their games. The lack of strength will prevent them from being able to play their games at all. Sure a pro strength program will help more than in college, but teams don't have a lot of patience nowadays. Unless he was drafted in the first round, which I completely doubt at this point, Brown would have one year to prove himself to a team. Brown would end up bouncing around from team to team, unable to establish himself and ultimately kill his confidence. Coming from a small school and watching him play, Brown can't afford to wait in limbo for a few years with his confidence shot. His confidence has been built off good play, and you can see it increase as he makes baskets, but all of his confidence can be taken away over a year of being beat up in NBA practices with absolutely no hope of countering.

Guys like Alec Brown were sexier 10-15 years ago. There were the Euro movement of tall, skinny, and heavily skilled guys. They phased out after way too many bust. There was also the movement to more physical freak types at center instead of guys who knew how to score to their back to the basket. In the late 1990s, I think we look at Brown and consider him a first rounder. Not anymore. Just look at the centers in the league today.

As I said, I am not going to write off a guy who is only a 20 years old and heading into his junior year in college. But he does not deserve any of the lottery hype so lets temper expectations. If you do happen to catch some games of Brown, you can expect to see a talented player who is somewhat of a unique talent. Rarely do you see guys with the feel and the size that Brown has in the post. Brown has great counter moves and good touch with either hand. He uses the glass, can hook the ball over both shoulders, drive to the hoop, and spin quickly towards the hoop with his back to the basket. He has a very good feel in the post and is able to figure out what is the best move out of his bag of tricks for each situation. He also is a good passer and does a good job feeding the ball into his fellow big, Brenna Cougill. He has a smooth stroke at the free throw line and his success there is reiterated with his ability to stretch the defense by hitting jumpers.

Defensively, it is obviously the strength that hinders him. Cougill, who is a huge body weight-wise, actually covered most of the centers while Brown would cover mid-major power forwards, which in a lot of cases, were undersized PFs who would play on the perimeter. Brown has gotten comfortable out there and moves pretty well laterally. He understands how to play pick and rolls as well so he could become a good pick and roll defender. He does a good job helping off the ball and has fairly quick hands. He blocks shots at a good rate, but nothing that you wouldn't expect from an able bodied 7 footer playing against lower level competition. I wouldn't call the guy a rim protector or much of an imposing threat. Adding weight would help for sure, but he has below average explosiveness even without added weight holding him down.

The status quo on Brown for me isn't going to change anytime soon. I like his offensive game, but its a moot point at his current physical stature. We will see how his body looks heading into this season, but a ten pound gain isn't going to garner my attention. The guy is weak, skinny or not. He isn't a wiry strength kind of guy who also has toughness and refuses to be pushed around. Brown gets thrown around like a rag doll and has a long way to go.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Scouting Report: Adonis Thomas

Height: 6'6''
Weight: 240lbs
Wingspan: 7'0''
Bday: 3/25/1993

Team: Memphis
Class of 2015

Adonis Thomas came to Memphis as a top 10 recruit in the nation even though he was seen as a guy stuck between the 3 and the 4. He chose to stay local and was willing to accept whatever role Memphis threw him into. The role for his freshman season was power forward. Thomas was able to put on over 20 pounds prior to the season to prepare for the season, going from a respectable 207 pounds to a beastly 230 pounds in order to handle battling inside with taller foes. Injuries took away the majority of his in conference season, but he is back for his sophomore year to prove he can produce for an entire season. He never did get a chance last year to perform consistently so this is a big year for him. With Shaq Goodwin coming in and Witherspoon and Will Barton off to pursue pro careers, Thomas should become more of a perimeter player this season.

Thomas is the kind of player that is able to play many different roles and positions for a ball club. You can say that about a handful of players, but it is rare to see a player that is able AND willing. Even more rare when you are looking at a McDonald's All-American player. The intangibles for Thomas, who is also a great student, defines Thomas as a player. He is a great character guy, works hard, and is willing to do all the little things to help his team win.

His freshman year was a testament to everything high school scouts raved about. Thomas battled consistently inside at power forward. He relished the role and played as much like a true power forward as he could. He battled in the post, set screens for the guards, and was always sure to box his man out. He used his strength and outstanding base on defense to handle other big men in the post.

On offense, Thomas stays in his lane. He lets the game come to him, but when he gets the ball in the mid-range area, he looks to attack. The mid-range game is his bread and butter right now. He has improved his mid-range jumper to a point where it is a weapon. His shot can be a little flat at times, but it looks for the most part. His jumper is able to open up room for the drive, although with his great first step, it was rare that forwards could stay in front of him anyway.

When driving, Thomas stayed under control and was able to shift his body just enough to avoid picking up charges. He showed advanced footwork - showing off a good feel for the Euro-step - and ability to maneuver in traffic. His great first step and subsequent dribbles combined with his frame and steady handles makes him a force attacking from mid-range - and Thomas knows this. He loves the face-up drive from 15 feet in. The question that has to be asked is how Thomas can adapt doing similar moves from the perimeter, where his shiftiness will need to go from good enough to above average.

Around the rim, Thomas's explosiveness and strength aid him yet again. But he doesn't strictly rely on that. He can hook the ball over his outside shoulder and also does a great job of using the rim to protect the ball. Just as with his dribble, Thomas isn't super fancy, but he has just enough creativeness to get the job done effectively.

Overall, his mid-range game is where he is most comfortable at right now and he has no problem staying within 15 feet while the guards dance around the perimeter. He constantly works to get post position and sneak into passing lanes to receive the ball. He works so hard no matter what - a lot of times Thomas didn't get a lot of touches but there was never a drop off in his play or any discontent expressed with his body language. While Thomas is an aggressive attacker in mid-range, he is a very unselfish player in the sense that he will always do whatever his team needs him to do. There is no "I" in Thomas's play.

His post game also has potential and he is received valuable experience last year as one of Memphis' "go-to post threats". I use that term very loosely as Memphis runs more like an AAU team, but Thomas still got a chance to focus on his back to the basket game. When facing away from the hoop, Thomas uses his frame to carve out room inside and presents a good target to throw to. His long arms are able to retrieve any pass within his range. You can tell Thomas enjoyed posting up in high school because he already has some decent post moves for a future NBA small forward. This part of his game should develop to a point where it is worth mentioning even as a perimeter player. Thomas will be one of the dying bread of NBA perimeter players who can work out of the post. While his post game isn't deadly, the fact that he has one is a plus.

Offensively, Thomas plays more like a power forward than small forward. At least, last year he did. He doesn't create much offense for him or other teammates. He can move the ball, but his negative A/TO reflects the way he played. Thomas stays in his zone and will take his shot if he is within his comfort zone (mid-range), but on the perimeter he rarely looks to make a play. He has shown continued improvement in his 3-pt shooting and it looks like that can actually turn into a strength down the road.

The fact that Thomas has a tweener offensive game isn't really worrisome. On offense, players can be interchangeable and versatility should be viewed as a good thing. Tweeners are only a problem when they are in between positions on defense. And that is not the case with Thomas.

With his 7-ft wingspan, excellent motor, strength, good awareness, and solid lateral quickness Thomas has everything it takes to defend small forwards at a plus level and perhaps even at an All-Defensive level. He is a pest on the ball and does a great job staying low. He has no problem fighting through screens but his versatility allows him to switch on screens if needed. He can legitimately guard three positions on the court. He also isn't much of a risk taker. Thomas stays in his own lane and focuses on stopping his man. That is not to say he lacks awareness - he has a good feel on the defensive end and provides help defense - it just means he doesn't gamble. That can partially explain his low steal and block numbers. The zone that Memphis employed also had a good deal to do with it. Regardless, Thomas doesn't appear to be a big threat blocking shots and it would be nice to see his steal/block numbers reflect his athleticism a bit more next season.

The same thing can be true for his rebounding. Thomas pulled down only 5.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, while his ultra skinny teammate, Will Barton, had 8.8 per game credited to his name. This can draw questions about his hands (he has strong hands but are they soft?), but I think part of it can be attributed to his unselfishness. Thomas often would tip rebounds to his teammates. Still, the numbers he put up are a little surprising for the kind of player he is. A super athletic player who played inside, had great strength, boxed out on each shot, and never took a play off couldnt put up good rebounding numbers?I would have expected him to over 10 rebounds per 40 minutes at the power forward position. In the end though, I doubt poor rebounding is going to be a weakness used against him come draft time. His job in the NBA will be to keep his opposing player from hitting the offensive glass and with his determination to box out, he will have no problem getting that done.

When projecting Thomas to the future, there is reason to believe he has a very high ceiling. To me though, he is actually one of the safest picks in the lottery while not possessing NBA First Team potential. I just don't ever see him being a prolific scorer from a skill standpoint or from an attitude standpoint. Think Marvin Williams. They are different players, but both are very unselfish, great character guys, who played a smaller role in college but their tools project them to be stars in the NBA. In reality, they played smaller roles because that is their style and neither of them were much of shot creators. Thomas is comfortable playing a role. Shot creating can be improved, but rarely do players make drastic improvements after they are drafted.

Still with what Thomas gives you, you are looking at a good to a great starter who can be somewhat of a super role player. He does all the little things and has no problem doing them. He has great character and great work ethic. He is good in transition. He is versatile. He can space the floor. He is a very smart player and a potential stopper on defense. He is a winner and his game translates well to games played in May and June. He is a guy you draft, plus him in at the wing, and don't ever worry about him again. While he doesn't make his teammates better with his creating ability, he makes the TEAM better with everything else he can do. I see Thomas as a mid to late lottery pick this year.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Scouting Report: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Height: 6'6''
Weight: 185lbs
Wingspan: 6'5.5''
Bday: 2/18/1993

Team: Georgia
Class of 2015

Caldwell-Pope had high expectations on his shoulders being the first McDonald's All-American to head to Athens since Carlos Strong in 1992, and while he was unable to will them to a winning season, he did show enough to get him into the NBA draft discussion. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's freshman season overall was a successful one, as he met the expectations of a top 20 recruit. He was one of their best players and lead the team in minutes played and steals, while finishing second on the team in point and rebounding.

The first thing I want to touch on is his shooting since it is a large part of his offense. Caldwell-Pope shot less than 40% from the field which is definitely a concerning number. When you look closer, you can see that 56% of Caldwell-Pope's shots were 3 point attempts, which makes him more 3-pt centered than Kim English, Marcus Denmon, CJ Wilcox, Seth Curry, Ashton Gibbs, Bradley Beal, and Darius Miller just to name a few.

So his high 3-pt attempts are a big part of why his overall FG% is so low. The fact that he only made 30% of his threes offers an even better explanation. Caldwell-Pope never stopped firing threes all season long even though hi 3-pt% was never above 34%. To finish the season, Caldwell-Pope went on a 8-44 drought.

Caldwell-Pope has always been known as a shooter and looks the part. He does a great job of setting his feet and squaring up to the hoop. His quick release aids his chucking ways, allowing him to get shots off with even the slightest bit of space. Pope took a lot of early threes last year, pulling up in transition and whenever he had room. Despite him missing tons of them, Caldwell-Pope's confidence never wavered. While his unconscious shooting can be seen as a bad thing, he does have the ideal shooter's mentality. Caldwell-Pope is a good shooter - that part of his game will come around.

I did see a more than a couple of times where Caldwell-Pope offered up air balls from 3-pt range. Right now, he has plenty of range but he needs to adjust to the college 3-pt line. Inside the arc, Caldwell-Pope's jumper was just as pure and even more reliable. Caldwell-Pope struggles to create space for his own shot, but if you overplay him, he does have a good first step and the ability to shoot off the dribble. He doesn't get to the rim very often, but he does a great job of getting squared up on the fly and hitting mid-range jumpers. He can move laterally out of the defenses' way or drive to the foul line area and pull up with a slight fade to create enough room for his jumper. He isn't the kind of guy who is going to cross you up and dribble the ball excessively, but he can use the dribble to get to spots on the floor he feels comfortable at.

His 2-pt% is actually solid for a guy who rarely gets to the rim. He shot over 50% inside the arc, making him slightly above average for a shooting guard. Considering all the long 2s he took, it is a testament to his pure shooting ability. Pope isn't a trained 3-pt shooter, he is a guy who can hit from all over. 

One problem Caldwell-Pope will have to overcome is his short arms. His wingspan measured about equal length to his height at around 6'6'' this summer. With his quick release and good elevation, Caldwell-Pope has already eliminated his short arm problem when it comes to affecting his shooting. He also has shown a turnaround jumper when posting up and fades back on his mid-range jumpers. When he finishes, Caldwell-Pope is explosive and finishes strong, often with dunks. He also does a good job of gathering himself and staying under control. He does everything he can on offense to prevent his lack of length get in the way.

Defensively, his lack of length doesn't appear to bother him either but it does limit who he can guard. With only a 6'6'' wingspan, it makes him strictly a shooting guard at the next level. Thats unfortunate because he is a very good defender who could be used as a teams primary wing defender in the future. The fact that he doesn't have the length to cover a lot of small forwards is disappointing. He may be able to make up for it with his toughness and tenacity on defense. Caldwell-Pope guards his man like his life depends on it at all times. He plays physical, possesses great lateral quickness, and had excellent awareness and energy for a guy who was only 18 for much of the season. He also did a great job helping off his man to stop penetration and his rebounding was phenomenal for a guard. He was second on the team in rebounding and ranked 10th out of all shooting guards in rebounds per 40 minutes. The only freshman who ranked above him was Bradley Beal, who played in a four guard offense while Caldwell-Pope played on a more traditional team.

As a shooter, it is a great sign for Caldwell-Pope's stock that he is willing to contribute to the team in other areas. There are plenty of guys who can shoot so everything you can do to stick out helps your case. Shooters success often depends on the situation the are placed in and that is why they generally don't go in the lottery. Caldwell-Pope has an uphill battle to prove that he is more valuable than other shooters and warrants a top 20 selection in the draft.

I also observed some other little things about his game that the numbers don't show. He has low assists numbers (but does have a positive A/TO ratio) since he can't create shots for himself much less anyone else, but he is a good passer. He is able to thread passes in between defenders while rarely making mistakes. Off the ball, Caldwell-Pope works hard to get open off screens and as I said before, is very quick to square his shoulders to the basket. He also can use on-ball screens to move laterally around for cleaner looks on his jumper. He likely will never be a guy to split defenders on picks, but he is able to use them to his advantage. He also does a good job of cutting to the hoop when the opportunity presents itself. In transition, Caldwell-Poope does show that he has adequate handle and is actually very fast with the ball.

He seems like a good character guy and student. He has the right attitude to be a complimentary wing player either off the bench or next to a high volume scorer. Caldwell-Pope isn't a franchise changer at the NBA level or even really at the college level, as you saw with Georgia's record, but he can turn into an important role player down the line on a good team. He brings a lot of things besides his shooting to the table. It would be nice to see him shoot a higher % from 3 this season because two straight seasons of bad shooting numbers would force anyone to revisit their assumption that he is a good shooter. I, of course, expect that his 3-pt percentage will be improved. Some draft sites have his stock as high as the lottery, but I think a more realistic projection would be the late teens to the mid-20s. Caldwell-Pope will be an interesting player to follow this season and is always a fun player to watch.

Friday, August 3, 2012

Scouting Report: Deonte Burton (Nevada)

Height: 6'1''
Weight: 185lbs
Wingspan: 6'6''
Bday: 6/26/1991

Team: Nevada
Class of 2014

When Deonte Burton came to Nevada, he had never played the point guard position before. Burton was more of a small shooting guard who loved to shoot the ball, but he didn't have the selfish label. Late in the recruiting process, UCLA ended up trying to get him, but Burton remained loyal to Nevada who had been interested from the beginning. Nevada has turned out to be a lot better situation for him, not only allowing him to play his freshman year, but he had the opportunity to learn how to play point guard on the fly.

Armon Johnson ended up declaring for the NBA draft, leaving a vacant opening at the point guard position. Burton was asked to fill the job and did so admirably. He had a great freshman season, being named the WAC's freshman of the year. As an undersized scoring guard, his transition and success right away at the point guard position drew the attention of NBA scouts.

Now, Burton hasn't been an overnight success story running the point guard. With Nevada's offense, he hasn't been asked to be much of a playmaker yet. Nevada had Dario Hunt, Olek Cyzy, and Malik Story all capable of creating their own shots. Burton was more in charge of bringing the ball up the court and getting his team into the offense. Coach David Carter didn't place a ton of pressure on him. For the most part, Burton was still asked to do what he does best - score.

Burton was known as a volume shooter in high school and you can still see the shooting guard in him when he plays. Too many times Burton brings the ball up and fires a deep 3-pt shot right away. Burton gets excellent lift on his jumper, allowing him to shoot over the bigger defenders he saw as a SG, but has a habit of shooting on his way down. His long release and extended movement from his legs creates a lot of moving parts, but there is a large enough sample size to call Burton a good shooter. He shot 35.5% from 3 his freshman year and upped his percentage to 37% this past season while taking over 5 threes per 40 minutes. He also improved his FT% by 5%, shooting a respective 80% in his sophomore year. Something that is surprising is that Burton is a very good shooter under pressure. Burton takes plenty of questionable shots that are contested, but he has apparently adjusted to shooting with a hand in his face fairly well.

Burton's no fear attitude and confidence in his jumper makes him the scorer he is right now. His three point shot sets up the rest of his offense, as the defense knows that he will pop a jumper at any time - from anywhere on the court. Burton takes advantage of this, showing a nice little ball fake and stutter step, using it to get into the lane. Burton has the strong body and explosiveness to do damage inside, but at this moment he is still a work in progress.

Burton is a very solidily put together player with natural athletic ability. He is on the small end and lacks the elite athleticism to render that point obsolete. Still, he is a good enough athlete that he can survive. He just needs to improve his mid-range game. If I was to give Burton any advice, Id recommend him model his game after former Hofstra star, Charles Jenkins, who is now in the NBA.

Right now, Burton has no in-between game. He take it hard into the lane and has to settle for difficult shots through contact. Burton can finish "and-one" plays at the rim as he has tons of explosion packed into his frame, but awkward shots from the foul line while absorbing contact should be avoided. Burton has a decent crossover and shows some hesitation moves, but has been unable to put it all together to form a mid-range game. Part of the problem does fall on his shooting form. Burton needs to get his feet set in order to get a good shot off and his current form makes it hard to do off the dribble in the paint. Off the dribble in transition is a little different as Burton is able to slow up and set his feet with a crossover to gain space. But in traffic, that is not feasible.

Burton is a steady ball handler, staying low to the ground and protecting the body with his mature frame. He has a propensity to drive the ball to the left, even though he is right handed. He seems to get more burst with his left hand. If Burton continues to do this, he needs to work on finishing with his left hand as well. For a guy that goes to the left as often as he does, he costs himself some baskets trying to finish with his right hand.

As a point guard, Burton is still a work in progress. Burton was not aggressive about bringing the ball up the court each time and being a leader. He did play on a veteran team, but I would have liked to see him bring the ball up more. Too many times the opposition covered Burton on the in-bounds and Burton made no effort to come back for the ball. He just ran up the court and assumed the role of shooting guard. When Burton does bring it up, he will either look to score in transition right away or initiate the offense at the top of the key by simply passing it off to somebody else. Rarely does Burton create much for his teammates, but Nevada's offense wasn't the best for that.

Burton would get chances on the pick and roll where he shows the ability to turn the corner. He also showed the ability to dribble himself into double teams and struggled to find an open teammate when being crowded by taller defenders. Burton needs to make quicker decision off the pick and roll due to his size and also needs to see the court better. Burton has to keep his head up and find open teammates. Right now, Burton makes the easy passes but can't see secondary and tertiary options.

Burton does take a lot of questionable shots, but overall he is a pretty unselfish player. Burton is a very streaky scorer who will go off for 8 points in a row and then fade into the background for the rest of the half. He can force some jumpshots, but they are shots he can make. When it comes to driving, Burton has improved since his freshman year in terms of playing more under control.

Defensively,  Burton shows the strength and energy to become a decent defender. He has solid length that should make him adequate in terms of point guards, perhaps even ideal considering his body type. Burton is fundamentally sound, staying low to the ground and always making sure to have his hands up. His lateral quickness leaves something to be desired, but since his strength is not an issue, Burton doesnt have to worry about losing anymore quickness in order to add weight. Burton hasn't impressed with his ability to rebound, but Nevada did employ a fair amountof zone defense in the games I watched. His quickness won't ever allow him to be a big playmaker defensively, but he can be a solid defender who stays in his lane.

To me, Burton has a long way to go as a prospect. He is being looked at as a potential second rounder this year, but he has a lot to improve upon to get there. With Cyzy and Hunt gone, the Nevada offense will become more perimeter oriented and Burton will finally be asked to be a playmaker. That is a good thing. The problem is Burton at the moment is still an undersize combo guard (tweener) without elite athleticism, point guard skills, feel for the game, or elite scoring ability. He is a solid player, but his transition to point guard has been overstated. He has been more of a point guard by title up to this point. This year we will see him pushed farther out of his comfort zone which can only be a good thing for him. He looks like an undrafted guy at the moment with his ceiling being a second rounder.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Scouting Report: Lorenzo Brown

Height: 6'5''
Weight:  180
Bday: 8/26/1990

Team: North Carolina State
Class of 2014

Lorenzo Brown made steady improvements to his game last year, partly due to Ryan Harrow's transfer and Mark Gottfried's trust in him to call him the Wolfpack's starting point guard from day one. Lorenzo Brown came into NC State in the same recruiting class as Harrow, another prized point guard recruit, but he was supposed to show up to Raleigh a year earlier. However, grades forced him to attend a year at prep school. Him and Harrow shared point guard duties and both had their moments, but ended up going separate paths. Both paths could cross again as the two of them are potential first round picks in the 2013 draft.

This year, Lorenzo Brown is joined by an excellent recruiting class, including Rodney Purvis, and a great returning core including Richard Howell, CJ Leslie, and Scott Wood. After making the tournament in the first time in 5 years, they now look to be one of, if not the favorite in the ACC.

Brown will have a ton of talent around him, but also a lot of expectations. No longer are they going to sneak up on anybody. His role may also be a little different. With graduate student Alex Johnson gone and Rodney Purvis seemingly taking his place in the lineup, Brown is going to be asked to act even more like a point guard and less like a scoring guard.

Brown has shown plenty of potential in doing that and has improved greatly. He came to North Carolina State as a combo guard whose career could go either way - shooting guard or point guard. Fortunately for his NBA stock, point guard is looking like a good bet for him now. He went from 5 assists per 40 minute last year to over 7 his sophomore season.

As a point guard, Brown exhibits great passing skills. He is able to get into the lane without a problem and does an excellent job setting up his teammates. When he drives, he has a pass first mind set and is very creative at delivering the ball. Brown doesn't simply kick the ball out to shooters, Brown likes to drive and dish down low to set up easy shots. He passes it into the post, finds cutters, and sets up teammates for good looks in the mid-range area.

Brown is his best at full speed. When he is asked to bring the ball up, he loves to get a running start and be on the attack before he even crosses halfcourt. When Brown gets you back pedaling, you will be hard pressed to stop him. Brown also likes to get a head start on his defender because he does struggle at times when he is pressed. His handle, while very crafty, tends to be lose. He does get the ball stolen cleanly from him at times when he has a defender at his hip pocket.

Brown's ball handling ability overall though, is what defines him as a player. his crossover allows him to change directions with ease. He is a natural dribbling the ball with either hand and his crossover is effortless yet extremely effective. He uses it all the time and it never fails to create space. He loves to use it to get in the mid-range area where he will look for a teammate first, but does have a solid mid-range game for himself to fall back on. His combination of ball fakes, hesitations, and effectiveness of his crossover make him very hard to stay in front of once he gets going. His ball handling ability allows him to virtually get where he wants on the court. He has improved his pull up jumper since his freshman season, resulting in an increased shooting percentage from 41% to 45%. He also has a very pretty floater that he can shooter of any ACC guard due to his elite size. Thanks to his size, Brown also can use his body to shield off defenders and he knows how to do this well. His long strides are also a plus.

Brown is also a bit of a throwback in the sense that he will take advantage of his size by posting up smaller defenders. He generally looks to pass out of these situations, but has flashed a turnaround jumper as well. Some of the things he does offensively remind me of Andre Miller.

Like Miller as shown late in his career, he can play off ball. Brown has a history of playing off the basketball and it shows. He does a great job getting open and also plays in a well coached NC State offense. He is great running around screens, due to his fluidness, slim frame, and terrific top end speed.  He has a great feel off the ball - cutting to the hoop when the opportunity arises.

In transition, Brown can take it all the way to tthe hoop without anyone being able to stop him. I think its hard to understand his speed since he is a taller guy, but he really gets from end to end in a hurry.

Physically, Brown has excellent size and I believe he is a legit 6'5''. He was noticeably bigger than most PGs and SGs in the ACC. His frame right now is slender. Speed wise, he is very good at full speed. He has a long, quick first step and his quickness is enhanced by his deception and ball skills. His lateral quickness suffers on the defensive end. Brown isn't explosive at the hoop, but will finish with dunks from time to time. He isn't terrible at finishing with contact, but strength is definitely something he needs to improve.

Brown has just about everything needed to be a point guard, but the majority of the questions about his game still center around whether or not he can be a point guard full time. Some believe he is just a really good ball handler who can pass, but does not exhibit the kind of intangibles needed. To me, he does have some AAU characteristics to his game, but I think he generally does a good job of picking his spots, playing under control, and making his teammates better. He does need to do a lot better job at control the tempo of games, so they don't blow 20 points leads like they did last year.

The things I am more worried about his his finesse game and ability to deal with a defender up in his face. Brown does a good job avoiding these situations, but pro scouting won't fail to capitalize on his loose handles. In college, he uses ball screens to initially get him open and doesn't bring the ball up regularly. He also likes to reset himself by taking a few steps back in order to separate from the defender. In the NBA, he may benefit from the lapse defense, but he will initially have to prove he can handle to pressure. Right now, that may be the biggest thing holding him back as a point guard. His intangibles are OK. He has a good feel for the game and makes his teammates better. He stays interested in the game and shows some leadership abilities. I dont generally like a point guard to fail to qualify for college academically, but it is what it is. Its something to be considered. Also, Id like to see him in more pick and roll opportunities. We know he can come of screens very well without the ball, but NC State doesn't do enough on ball screens. To be honest, most of the time Brown doesn't need them but in order to be an NBA point guard you have to excel in the pick and roll game. Brown's game should translate, but Gottfried's offense is more based around motion and cuts.

His finesse play is more worrisome on the defense end. Offensively, Id like to see him be stronger and more explosive at the rim, but his floater and passing ability make it so he can get around it. Defensively though, he treats screens like bombs and stays far away from them. Brown creates way too much work for himself on defense, as he refuses to fight through screens and instead tries to rely on his speed to run around everything. He switches on screens whenever he can. Brown's refusal to battle through contact will be an absolute death sentence if he continues to keep it up. He needs to add weight to his frame, but even so, Brown shouldn't be avoiding contact like he is in the college game.

His finesse style carries over into passiveness on the defensive end as well. Brown can be a good defender for stretches - I watched him give Austin Rivers a hard time for an entire half - but for the most part, he is very easy to drive past. He doesn't slide his feet well, a result of him most likely being able to get away with depending on his pure speed in his younger days. At a legit 6'5'', Brown has to put some effort in staying lo. Its not the easiest thing for a man of his size to do, but it is necessary. His size does come in handy in contesting shots and he also has good length. He is able to guard both backcourt positions.

Shooting wise, Brown improved his 3-pt % from 30% to 35%. He is good with his feet set and is getting more comfortable with his step back jumper. He isn't fully comfortable shooting off the dribble unless he has time to gather himself. When he does, he shows nice touch mid-range. I question his range out to the NBA 3-pt line and doubt he will be much more than a "keep you honest" kind of shooter from 3. His free throw percentage sits in the low 70s.

Overall, Brown has one best skill to physical attribute combinations out of all the point guard eligible to be drafted. Playing for a top 10 team this year, there will be a spotlight on him and very hard criticism on how he runs a team. He has plenty of talent around him, so he will be expected to act like a point guard and run the team, making sure everyone gets their touches. I want to see Brown bring the ball up more this year and deal with pressure. He needs to continue to improve his shooting and show a new found desire on defense. Proof of toughness would be welcomed.  Most of all, Brown should be the leader of this NC State team.

A good showing this year will be good enough to get him in the first round, but his ceiling can be as high as the lottery. Besides Myck Kabongo, I am not sure there is a point guard in this draft with more potential. He likely comes out this season because he is going to be 22 this month. His age does cause some concerns - I would be much more willing to consider him a lottery guy if he were only 20. Still, Brown is a very intriguing point guard to monitor this year. You will be hearing plenty more from him.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Recruiting Dominoes - Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes vs The Harrison Twins

With the news of Xavier Rathan-Mayes receiving a personal phone call from Coach Calipari and now today the announcement that he will visit Lexington on Friday, Kentucky seems to be inching closer to offering him a scholarship. Rathan-Mayes announced his top 10 school today and all of them had offered him a scholarship - minus Kentucky.

Rathan-Mayes would be a great get for Kentucky, but the real prize here is Wiggins. Kentucky may or may not be interested in Rathan-Mayes if not for Wiggins, but with Wiggins, they could potentially have a great package deal. It has been discussed a lot that they would like to attend college together, continuing their careers together in which they play high school, AAU, and in national competitions together.Wiggins is one of the best recruits to head to college in quite some time and any team would have a problem taking another top 30 player to have a better chance at his services.

It has been believed for quite some time that Wiggins is down to Kentucky and Florida State. Florida State is where his dad played his college basketball at. Last weekend though, Leonard Hamilton went to Philly to watch Wiggins and CIA Bounce play, but apparently he didn't get the memo that Wiggins didnt make the trip. That prompted folks to speculate that Hamilton and Wiggins aren't as close as made out to be and that Calipari has the inside scoop and edge on the #1 recruit in the nation. For the record, Florida State was also on Xavier Rathan-Mayes top 10 list.

Now I am making a few assumptions here, but most are pretty well accepted as fact. Wiggins should end up reclassifying to the class of 2013. The idea of Wiggins remaining in high school for two more years sounds stupid.

Now, Kentucky is also in a heated battle to land the Harrison Twins. The Harrison twins will also be coming in on the class of 2013 and they will be a package for sure. That means, they will be looking for a place where both of them can shine. At Kentucky, one of them would have to be the third option. And if Rathan-Mayes is there, he could ennd up eating into Aaron Harrison's minutes. Aaron is a scorer and I don't think he wants to be on a team with Wiggins, Rathan-Mayes, his brother, and the other 5 star recruits Kentucky will surely have.

Kentucky may ultimately have the choice on what package they would rather have. I don't think they will be able to swing all four the guys. They may have a better chance of getting just Wiggins and the Harrison twins, leaving Rathan-Mayes out in the cold, but that may be risky since Wiggins and Rathan-Mayes could turn around and go to Florida State. Plus, Rathan-Mayes could be the only guy out of the foursome who may stay in college for a few years. He is a guy you can build around.

Lets assume they choose between Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes and the Harrison twins. Who should they take?

Based of their future outlook, point guard may end up being the biggest position of need. They have Harrow now, but he could leave for the draft either this year or next year. They have no point guard coming in for the Class of 2012. In 2013, they have interest in only Andrew Harrison and Cat Barber at the moment. Having seen both multiple times, I would say there is a huge talent gap between the two.

At small forward, lets act on the assumption that Alex Poythress will be a one and done. In fact, lets assume that Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin will be one and done as well. All three are projected lottery picks. Noel is irrelevant, but if Goodwin did stay, that could make it more likely the Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes combo headed to Kentucky.

At shooting guard, Kentucky is in the hunt for plenty of the top guys and will end up with one of them. If a bigger talent like James Young or Wayne Seldon commit, that could be the end for the Harrison twins consideration of Kentucky.

Kentucky is in a great spot and really has the ability to play their cards in a lot of different ways. There is also Jabari Parker to consider. As a Maryland fan, I am hoping they have so many options that they end up blocking the Harrison twins plans of heading to Kentucky. With Xavier Rathan-Mayes getting closer to getting a scholarship offer, it looks like Kentucky could be in the process of doing that. If that happens, the Harrison twins to Maryland looks like a good bet.

(Note: I am not saying that the Harrison twins would be unable to start over Rathan-Mayes, but since they are a package deal, both of them need to go to a place where the are the top options. They won't have a problem standing out at Kentucky, but why choose to play beside Andrew Wiggins when the twins talent alone is good enough to take any solid big 6 school deep in the tourney?)