Wednesday, May 29, 2013

2013 Shooting Guard Prospects By The Numbers + Rankings

% of Shots at the Rim

BJ Young - 46%
Archie Goodwin - 45%
Jamaal Franklin - 29%
Michael Snaer - 25%
Reggie Bullock - 23%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 21%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 21%
Allen Crabbe - 19%
Tony Snell - 18%
Brandon Paul - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Tim Hardaway Jr - 71%
Allen Crabbe - 71%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 70%
BJ Young - 69%
Reggie Bullock - 68%
Archie Goodwin - 65%
Brandon Paul - 64%
Michael Snaer - 62%
Jamaal Franklin - 61%
Tony Snell - 53%

% Assisted at the Rim

Reggie Bullock - 56%
Jamaal Franklin - 54%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 48%
Allen Crabbe - 45%
Tony Snell - 43%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 39%
BJ Young - 35%
Archie Goodwin - 29%
Michael Snaer - 28%
Brandon Paul - 24%

Analysis: These numbers are very disappointing for a guy like Tony Snell. Even though he will be asked to be a 3 and D guy at the next level, his strength and toughness is a concern. His play at the rim isn't encouraging in that regard. His biggest competition as a 3 and D guy, Reggie Bullock, posted respectable numbers here even though he may be the worse of the bunch in terms of driving all the way to the rim.

For the non-shooters of the group - Archie Goodwin and BJ Young - they both were unsurprisingly at the top of the first category. Their games right now revolve around getting to the rim and they have a great natural ability at doing it. They both create a lot of their shots at the rim and finish at a very solid rate when you factor in how much of these drives they are creating through traffic. Game film backs up their ability to get to the rim and I believe they might be the two best natural slashers in the draft. The rest of their game is what holds them back right now.

Michael Snaer's numbers look similar to Jamaal Franklin's, although Franklin has a lot more of his buckets at the rim assisted. Snaer's splits look more like a slasher than a shooter, even though he is a solid jump shooter. It shows how much of a role change Snaer was forced to play this season. He was asked to be a creator and slasher with the ball in his hands and that dropped his overall FG%. He continues to be one of the most underrated players in this draft and I don't believe there is a great gap between him and Franklin. As of now, it looks like Franklin will cost you a first round pick while Snaer may slip to the end of the second round.

For an athletic guy, Brandon Paul didn't get to the rim much nor did he end up on the receiving end of a lot of assists. He's a guy who needs to ball in his hands to be effective and likes to settle for jumpshots. For a streaky shooter who shot less than 33% from 3-pt range these last 2 years, thats not very good.

Hardaway Jr, Crabbe, and Caldwell-Pope all did fairly well in this area which holds true to the belief that they are currently the three most well rounded SGs in the group.

% of Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 43%
Archie Goodwin - 37%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 36%
Jamaal Franklin - 35%
Tony Snell - 34%
Michael Snaer - 31%
Brandon Paul - 30%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 26%
BJ Young - 25%
Reggie Bullock - 20%

FG% on 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 45%
Tony Snell - 43%
Reggie Bullock - 38%
Brandon Paul - 38%
Jamaal Franklin - 37%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 36%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 35%
Michael Snaer - 31%
Archie Goodwin - 27%
BJ Young - 25%

% of Assisted 2-pt Jumpers

Tony Snell - 52%
Reggie Bullock - 46%
Allen Crabbe - 44%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 41%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 28%
Jamaal Franklin - 26%
Archie Goodwin - 20%
BJ Young - 20%
Michael Snaer - 6%
Brandon Paul - 6%

Once again, Archie Goodwin and BJ Young are on a different playing field than the rest. They are both just so raw as shooters and decision makers that even with all their talent, they will need a few years in the D-League before contributing. While they both have intriguing potential, its real hard to justify considering picking them in the first round. The second round, where there is no risk, is perfectly fair game to take them over other prospects however.

The biggest standout in this area is Allen Crabbe, who I believe is the best overall player in this bunch. Not only does he shoot the highest percentage of his shots from the mid-range area, he also makes the highest percentage. In the NBA, that will only be magnified more.

Brandon Paul and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both guys that did OK in this category, but their mid-range game is comprised of a lot of long 2-pt pull up jumpshots. There isn't a whole lot of savvyness to their play inside the arc.

Hardaway Jr and Franklin both take a good amount of their shots in the mid-range area and they create a lot of them as well. These two guys play like veterans inside the arc and have a knack for throwing opponents off balance. Franklin scores by getting to the line, while Hardaway has more of a finesse game working to his advantage.

Snell and Bullock had the highest percentage of their jumpers assisted, which goes right along with the kind of players they are. Don't look for them to create many of their own shots, although Snell has more potential in this area.

Snaer's mid-range game has always been poor, which is surprising given his skills and feel for the game. The fact that a player who generally should be an off guard only had 6% of his mid-range shots assisted, though again speaks for how tough of a role he was put in this year.

% of Shots 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 58%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 52%
Brandon Paul - 52%
Tony Snell - 48%
Michael Snaer - 45%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 43%
Allen Crabbe - 38%
Jamaal Franklin - 37%
BJ Young - 28%
Archie Goodwin - 18%

3-pt FG%

Reggie Bullock - 43%
Tony Snell - 39%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 38%
Michael Snaer - 38%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 37%
Allen Crabbe - 34%
Brandon Paul - 33%
Archie Goodwin - 27%
Jamaal Franklin - 26%
BJ Young - 24%

% of Assisted 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 94%
Tim Hardaway Jr - 90%
Allen Crabbe - 88%
Tony Snell - 85%
BJ Young - 76%
Archie Goodwin - 71%
Michael Snaer - 67%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 61%
Jamaal Franklin - 57%
Brandon Paul - 57%

By now I dont think I need to point out the differences between Goodwin/Young and the rest of the group, but at least Goodwin kept his 3-pt shots to a minimum. Young, however, took way too many threes.

You can say the same thing for Franklin, who took about the same percentage of 3s are Allen Crabbe. Thats just a lot of bad shots by Franklin and its not like he was the only offensive option on his team. His team was able to create good looks when they got into their offense.

You especially don't want to see Franklin creating so many of those shots - his amount of assisted jumpers tied Paul for the lowest. One thing you can notice is that Paul, Franklin, and Snaer all shot worse from three this year than in previous seasons. That appears to be because they took a lot of low percentage shots. I think all three are better shooters than their numbers this year show.

Caldwell-Pope had to create a lot of his jumpers as well, but it was in a little different way. KCP came off screens a lot and took one or two dribbles which took away assists, but it still doesn't show that he is able to create his own 3-pt shot. For the difficulty level and the amount of shots he took however, he did shoot a very respectable percentage.

Bullock and Snell both did a lot of what they will be doing in the pros in college. They shot a lot from deep, hit a lot, and didn't create much. They are spot up shooters and seem to be pretty good in that role.

Its amazing how much better Hardaway Jr has gotten throughout his career as a spot up shooter. He's even gotten better throughout the season as he shot 40% in conference play (last year in Big Ten play he shot 26%).

Crabbe only ranks as a middle of the road scorer, but its impressive how much his game has involved. Last year 51% of his shots were from beyond the arc. This season its at a modest 38%. Im not worried about his shooting at all - he always been a shooter and seemed to just suffer from fatigue at the end of the year. Im actually more encouraged by his numbers because he showed the ability to adapt and has developed a complete offensive repertoire now.

SG Rankings

1. Ben McLemore (top 5)
2. Victor Oladipo (top 10)
3. Allen Crabbe (late lottery to mid first)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (mid to late first)
5. Reggie Bullock (late first)
6. Jamaal Franklin (late first to early second)
7. Tim Hardaway (late first to early second)
8. Tony Snell (late first to early second)
9. Michael Snaer (early to mid second)
10. Brandon Paul (mid to late second)

The first 5 in my rankings are pretty firmly set in that order. Im not a huge fan of KCP, but he has too much potential to put him below the rest of the players who project as role players. Of the role guys, Bullock is my favorite and I believe he would be perfect on a playoff team picking towards the end of the first round.

The guys ranked 6-8 are all fairly equal in my book and I could flop opinions on them depending on the day. But they are all different kind of players and it really just depends on the system fit. 

I left out Archie Goodwin, BJ Young, and Ricky Ledo from my list for a reason. They are so far away from contributing, I'm not sure if any of them are worth a first round pick. They will all likely be at the end of their first contract before they actually start seeing some of their potential. Its also hard to rank these guys with the rest because they are kind of on a different playing field. If they first 5 guys are off the board and we are in the second round, I think they are all fair game to be picked above the guys 6-8 on the list. They are a big risk, but in the second round, there really isn't much downside. As for which of the three I would prefer to role the dice on - Archie Goodwin would be my target. Ledo may have the most potential, but he's a huge unknown.

1 comment:

  1. In your opinion, is Snell's projected impact on defense something his college play warranted, or is it just something people are just assuming based on his good size and athletic testing results? he looks like such a waif and his numbers are so weak it's hard for me to imagine he'll be able to guard NBA wings, who are more like college power forwards in strength and toughness.

    really, really love you blog by the way.