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Monday, May 13, 2013

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%
Ray McCallum - 45%
Lorenzo Brown - 39%
Nate Wolters - 30%
Shane Larkin - 28%
Pierre Jackson - 25%
Phil Pressey - 25%
Erick Green - 23%
Isaiah Canaan - 21%
Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%
Erick Green - 67%
Ray McCallum - 66%
Pierre Jackson - 64%
Shane Larkin - 62%
Lorenzo Brown - 61%
Myck Kabongo - 60%
Isaiah Canaan - 56%
Matthew Dellavedova - 53%
Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%
Nate Wolters - 26%
Pierre Jackson - 24%
Lorenzo Brown - 22%
Erick Green - 21%
Matthew Dellavedova - 21%
Shane Larkin - 18%
Myck Kabongo - 14%
Isaiah Canaan - 13%
Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%
Lorenzo Brown - 39%
Phil Pressey - 37%
Nate Wolters - 35%
Matthew Dellavedova - 33%
Isaiah Canaan - 29%
Shane Larkin - 28%
Pierre Jackson - 26%
Ray McCallum - 24%
Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%
Nate Wolters - 45%
Erick Green - 43%
Isaiah Canaan - 42%
Matthew Dellavedova - 42%
Phil Pressey - 38%
Pierre Jackson - 35%
Ray McCallum - 35%
Lorenzo Brown - 30%
Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%
Isaiah Canaan - 12%
Ray McCallum - 10%
Erick Green - 10%
Shane Larkin - 9%
Matthew Dellavedova - 4%
Lorenzo Brown - 3%
Nate Wolters - 3%
Phil Pressey - 2%
Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%
Isaiah Canaan - 51%
Pierre Jackson - 49%
Shane Larkin - 44%
Phil Pressey - 38%
Nate Wolters - 35%
Ray McCallum - 31%
Erick Green - 29%
Myck Kabongo - 25%
Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%
Erick Green - 39%
Shane Larkin - 39%
Nate Wolters - 38%
Isaiah Canaan - 36%
Pierre Jackson - 36%
Ray McCallum - 33%
Phil Pressey - 32%
Myck Kabongo - 30%
Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%
Erick Green - 66%
Lorenzo Brown - 65%
Matthew Dellavedova - 62%
Ray McCallum - 51%
Pierre Jackson - 47%
Nate Wolters - 46%
Isaiah Canaan - 41%
Phil Pressey - 39%
Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

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